Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP game-plan: Take the top slot, or a close second, either for the 'Lotus' or the larger NDA, if it can and push the AIADMK to the third place, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Madras high court on Thursday ruled that no unannounced resolutions could be taken up at the meeting of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general and executive councils in Chennai, restraining the camp led by joint co-ordinator Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) from initiating any such move over the possible single leadership issue.
With both the factions pledging their support, the BJP believes that the natural corollary is for them to now merge and retain the two-leaves election symbol, a view shared by the prime minister as well.
Stalin still enjoys a lot of sympathy and empathy as someone wishing well for the state, but not full-throated support as in 2019 and 2021, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is an impression within the Tamil Nadu BJP -- although no one is airing it -- that over-exposure for Narendra Modi over the past months may work against party candidates, as they have triggered a near-continuous social media debate on his achievements and failures, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK insiders see the very idea of an NDA conclave as a measure of the BJP's current electoral assessment, stemming from relative weakness in 2024 compared to 2014 and 2019. In their reckoning, the BJP now needs allies more than the other way round, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
'If he has not achieved 'Congress mukt Bharat' even now, the question of his creating a 'DMK mukt Tamil Nadu' does not arise,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
rediffGURU and financial planning expert Colonel Sanjeev Govila (retd) will answer your personal finance-related questions.
It should not surprise anyone if either of the contending parties in the 'TN speaker's case' comes up with a submission for referring the matter of 'speaker's powers' to a Constitution Bench. In political terms it could buy more time for the Edappadi camp, to settle down and stabilise itself, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The brokerage believes the economic growth cycle is not fully priced in. It has revised upwards the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Sensex.
The AIADMK is convinced that the BJP will remain an electoral burden for a long time to come, beginning the Lok Sabha polls next year, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
With the unanticipated floods across Tamil Nadu catching the unprepared administration unawares, Stalin finds that some of the early positives that had rubbed on his initiatives have been lost, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
The twin announcements have virutally cleared the decks for the merger of the two factions.
On one hand, South Indian states have been complaining about denial of a proportionate portion of the sharable funds from the Centre, based on population. On the other hand, they stand to lose Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats that again are based on population, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Sometimes we use political pressure and sometimes political acumen to get what we want.'
A court of chief judicial magistrate granted the police 60 days to carry out the probe and directed it to provide progress reports every three weeks, public prosecutor K Balachandra Menon said.
'Tamil Nadu presents a challenge to the BJP and its politics.' 'DMK is making all efforts to resist the BJP.'
Excerpted from Sahara: The Untold Story by Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
On the face of it, the first round has gone to Edappadi K Palaniswami. Not only has he been named chief ministerial candidate, that too by his one-time bete noire Panneerselvam, he also gets one member more in the steering committee than OPS. He can now hope to wean away one or more members of the OPS team in the steering committee just as he had done with other leaders in the latter's camp, post-reunification. That was also OPS's concern, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
According to DMK, the voters are already consolidated on ideological lines, hence the impact of anti-incumbency, whether against the BJP Centre or the DMK state may not be too much, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The recent sell-off in IT stocks such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has resulted in a sharp decline in the IT sector weighting in the Nifty50 index. The sector's weighting in the index has slipped to a five-year low of 12.2 per cent, down from the 17.7 per cent at the end of March 2022. The top IT companies - TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra - accounted for 13.6 per cent of the index at the end of March this year.
Ahead of VK Sasikala's return to Tamil Nadu on February 8, there are some important questions facing her. One, does she carry electoral weight more now than her brainchild AMMK had in the 2019 LS polls? Two, can she retain or build upon the five per cent vote-share from that time? And finally, is there space for Sasikala to retrieve, first within the AIADMK and then across the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sources in the military establishment also said the present global scenario "necessitates a flexible and adaptive approach" to tackle defence and national security challenges.
'You have to fight your own battles and I fought mine.'
The PM wanted me to join the ministry headed by Palaniswami, says OPS.
At 70, going by hospital records made public, most age and health-related arguments put out against super-star Rajinikanth's entry into politics, before he withdrew citing a 2016 kidney-transplant, hold good for Sasikala, too, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Aseem Chhabra rates the movies he's watched in 2023, and tells you where you can watch them!
The BJP and the AIADMK are unable to sort out ideological differences, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Though EPS has sworn peace for now, or so it seems, his camp is said to be considering the possibility of calling an early meeting of the party's general council, to get a mandate in his favour before things went out of control. Ground-level indications are that OPS had lost his limited base, which alone had forced him to patch up with the other, reportedly at the instance of the BJP ally at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
An adverse judgement could have triggered a political realignment in Tamil Nadu and brought the ruling party perilously close to losing its majority in the state assembly whose effective strength is 232. Two seats are vacant.
Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are centred on chief ministerial candidates of rival parties. When Sasikala cannot contest even a panchayat election for six years after her release, even if she were to have sympathetic backers even among apolitical voters, she does not have any 'transferrable vote-bank' even otherwise for a chief minister candidate of her choice, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vellore is one of the two seats that the DMK alliance won by the narrowest of margins in 2019. For the DMK's vote-score to be so low in a constituency with a substantial Muslim population has not missed the BJP strategists' eyes, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK leaders and supporters pay homage to J Jayalithaa on her 5th death anniversary.
'My wife, family members as well as members of the workers will be trustees.' 'The trust will take all decisions -- no family member can individually take any decision.'
Anil Rego, CEO, Right Horizons, answers your personal income tax queries.
The DMK leadership may now have to deal with a demand for more seats from its Congress ally in the Lok Sabha polls, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dig up the perceived past of the DMK rival, now under a new leader in M K Stalin, may not gel with the voters, both old and new. If they are still going to vote for the AIADMK-BJP combine, it will be for entirely different reasons, and despite Modi's poll speeches, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
